Elman recurrent Neural Networks

Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting by Using Double Seasonal ARIMA Recurrent Neural Networks

By: Alfonsus J. Endharta and Suhartono

Abstract

Neural networks have apparently enjoyed considerable success in practice for predicting short-term hourly electricity demands in many countries. In Indonesia, forecasting of short-term hourly electricity usually is done by employing classical methods such as Double Seasonal ARIMA model. Though there are researches held in Indonesia about electricity demand forecasting with neural networks, especially Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FFNN), researchers decided that classical methods such as ARIMA model perform better than neural networks because FFNN yields more MAPE than ARIMA model. Electricity demands in most city in Indonesia has moving average order that can not be represented by FFNN. In this paper we use Elman-Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), that able to represent moving average order. With this paper we prove if Elman-RNN is a better method in forecasting hourly electricity demands in Mengare, Gresik than ARIMA model. We get ARIMA ([1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, 14, 21, 33], 1, 8)(0, 1, 1)24(1, 1, 0)168 as the best Double Seasonal ARIMA model in forecasting electricity demands in Mengare. There are 14 innovational outliers detected from this model. We use 4 different architectures of neural networks. First one is that the input units are similar with ARIMA model predictors. Second, the ARIMA predictors plus 14 dummy outliers be the input units. Third, the 24 multiplied lagged of the data. And the last, the inputs are the 1 lagged and the 24 multiplied lagged plus minus 1. The best network we get is the last one, i.e., Elman-RNN(22, 3, 1). By comparing the MAPE of both methods, Elman-RNN perform well and bring less MAPE than ARIMA model.

Source: Alfonsus J. Endharta

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I hope it does not happen but its about to

2010-10-16 15:07:40 by fourdashes

Happen. The people in very high positions want a one world currency.
Just imagine everyone doing the conversion over from all existing currencies.
As we increase the debt on the dollar *which is fiat* it reduces its value. As the value goes down we will need to pay a higher interest rate when people lend us funds. And that will mean higher taxes or reductions in govt spending.

The eventual idea is crossing borders will be

2011-02-16 10:09:09 by fourdashes

Ceremonial.
Senators voted a few years ago to NOT make English the official language.
A couple of years ago it was suggested we learn Spanish so the Spanish speakers do not have to learn English.
Where is the current currency conversion rate at? If pesos are worth more and dollars less... that will make it more likely we dump the dollar. In a conversion process, if the dollar has less of a value than before, that will mean less wealth in the new currency.

Cash

2007-10-29 08:36:59 by -

Credit cards will give you an un-favorable exchange rate and then charge a service fee for the conversion. Unless its unexpected charge, I'd say bring & use cash.
I bet you canadians like that our dollar is decreasing in value, huh? :(

Hyperinflation is an unchecked increase in the

2010-12-13 14:03:19 by Shark55

Money supply usually accompanied by a widespread unwillingness on the part of the population to hold the hperinflationary money for more than the time needed to trade it for something non-monetary to avoid further loss of real value. Social unrest is often a result of hyperinflation. Hyperinflation tends to strike very fast and has devasting effects on the populace.
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Hyperinflation invariably ends with a conversion to a new fat currency...

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