Predictive Modelling Neural Networks

predictive model.jpg

A well-known prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a prediction market software created in 1996, is a good example of how prediction markets work: players buy or sell their prediction-shares, in this case connected to the movie industry, and influence the price of the predictions. The Hollywood Stock Exchange correctly predicted 39 out of 46 Oscar winners in 2006.

Prediction markets are based on crowdsourcing, making use of the wisdom of crowds. Studies have shown that the predictions which prediction market software generates is often more accurate than those of highly specialised experts. However, a prediction market will never replace experts – one should combine the wisdom of experts with the wisdom of crowds .

The accuracy of the predictions that a prediction market generates is depends mainly on a stimulation system and gamification. Participants that buy their „shares” cheap and sell them high add to the accuracy of the prediction. On the other side, participants that sell lower than the original price worsen the quality of the prediction, and as a result will lose credit and might be filtered out by the system.

Source: predictionmarkets.org

You might also like:

Clever Stocks - Stock market analysis & prediction made easy!
Clever Stocks - Stock market analysis & prediction made easy!
Best Forex Prediction Software
Best Forex Prediction Software
Using Market Samurai as Social Tagging Software
Using Market Samurai as Social Tagging Software

Making money in the future

2008-06-06 08:24:10 by ---

How can musicians make money when there's little market for recorded music? Today's NYTimes has some insight.
full article:
Bits, Bands and Books
By PAUL KRUGMAN
June 6, 2008
...
In 1994, one of those gurus, Esther Dyson, made a striking prediction: that the ease with which digital content can be copied and disseminated would eventually force businesses to sell the results of creative activity cheaply, or even give it away. Whatever the product — software, books, music, movies — the cost of creation would have to be recouped indirectly: businesses would have to “distribute intellectual property free in order to sell services and relationships.”
For example, she described how some software companies gave their product away but earned fees for...

Investigators at North Carolina State University Describe Research in …  — Equities.com
According to news reporting originating in Raleigh, North Carolina, by VerticalNews journalists, research stated, "In this study, an artificial neural network (ANN) model is presented in order to predict the tenacity and hairiness of carded cotton ...

Picture It Settled® Predicts Outcome of Intellectual Property Case Within 3.5 …  — Sacramento Bee
Picture It Settled® software uses neural networks to predict what an opponent will do, saving time and money. It guides decision-makers by quickly modeling anticipated reactions based on deep data from thousands of cases. Users benefit from three key ...

Your Negotiation Crystal Ball Has Arrived  — Forbes
Using neural networks, probability theory and behavioral patterns, the Picture It Settled® team says their online app is capable of predicting what your opponent will do. The Settlement Prophet™ application is said to estimate when parties are likely ...

Clever Stocks Software: Groundbreaking Stock Prediction Software Stock Market Prediction Tool
Clever Stocks Software: Groundbreaking Stock Prediction Software Stock Market Prediction Tool
First time using CrowdClarity
First time using CrowdClarity
Crowdcast Demo
Crowdcast Demo

Minnesota Football Recruiting: 2013 National Signing Day Review Part 1  — The Daily Gopher
Still, this mentality trickles down from the top programs in college football to the rest of us, at which point the Church of Star Ratings and the associated high priests of the various recruiting networks disseminate the gospel: to win, you must ...

I Can Predict the Markets
I Can Predict the Markets
1/22/2009: Prediction Markets: Entrepreneurial Opportunities in Fortune Telling
1/22/2009: Prediction Markets: Entrepreneurial Opportunities in Fortune Telling
RFM Analysis: Customer segmentation, profiling and prediction
RFM Analysis: Customer segmentation, profiling and prediction

Related posts:

  1. Cognitive Modelling neural networks
  2. Predicting time series Neural Networks
  3. Predictive Coding Neural Networks