Predictive Modelling Neural Networks
A well-known prediction market, the Hollywood Stock Exchange, a prediction market software created in 1996, is a good example of how prediction markets work: players buy or sell their prediction-shares, in this case connected to the movie industry, and influence the price of the predictions. The Hollywood Stock Exchange correctly predicted 39 out of 46 Oscar winners in 2006.
Prediction markets are based on crowdsourcing, making use of the wisdom of crowds. Studies have shown that the predictions which prediction market software generates is often more accurate than those of highly specialised experts. However, a prediction market will never replace experts – one should combine the wisdom of experts with the wisdom of crowds .
The accuracy of the predictions that a prediction market generates is depends mainly on a stimulation system and gamification. Participants that buy their „shares” cheap and sell them high add to the accuracy of the prediction. On the other side, participants that sell lower than the original price worsen the quality of the prediction, and as a result will lose credit and might be filtered out by the system.
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