Stock market projections

How have we done on our stock market predictions in 2009? The proof of the pudding is in the eating!

If you browse around this blog you will find we accurately predicted the next move in price and time ahead of the crowd sometimes days, weeks and months before it actually happened.

On February 22nd 2009 we wrote: ” I expect that around March 10-12th +/- 4 days we will have set a temporary bottom. I than expect, looking at the longer term cycles, the market will retrace from the March bottom for several months and can go south again for another few months until June/July this year.“

On March 11th we concluded: ”Given the price movement of March 11th, there is a high probability we have reached the bottom of the medium term cycle we have been following for the stock market in past previews…”

Comment: the S&P 500 bottomed at March 6th 2009.

On May 3rd our findings were: “..the dominant cycle we are following closely in these blog postings of the last few months is still in play, and there is a 75% probability this cycle is likely to run it’s course until May 8th +/- 4 days. This intermediate high will probably confirm an Elliott wave 4 of some degree (or part of it), since the down-trend started in 2007. We do expect a further down-trend will set-in once this high has been confirmed. This will likely take us to much lower regions, and culminate in a bottom around July 7th 2009 +- 4 days.”

Source: Market Timing Cycles

McGraw-Hill Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional
Book (McGraw-Hill)

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Nice Recovery! Public buying fewer stocks....

2004-09-06 08:54:03 by puro

The Nineties were our Swan Song...
" Eye Opening Chart
So here I was with a few minutes last week, the people's economist wondering what would happen if I took the weekly volume figures on the NYSE and backed out program trading?
So that's what I did - and then to smooth it out a bit, I rolled in a 13-week moving average. Here's the picture of investment by what I would call civilians:
Looks to me like the day trading business is toast -MORE BELOW CHART...

and come to think of it, as an designated "pattern day trader" myself (I've since gone to gold and cash having realized where we are...) I realized that I personally fit this chart to a tee. The hole in the chart is the week that...

Nice Recovery! 78 Billion $ Pension Hole....

2004-11-19 07:20:33 by puro


"Pension safety net’s ‘$78bn hole’
By Norma Cohen in Washington
Published: November 18 2004 22:08 | Last updated: November 18 2004 22:08
The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, a government-sponsored safety net, will require a $78bn cash injection next year unless Congress changes the way companies run their pension schemes, according to a new analysis.
The Center on Federal Financial Institutions, a Washington think-tank which studies US government guarantee programmes, has concluded that the hole could be as big as $100bn, if all “legacy” airlines become insolvent and collapse their pension liabilities into the PBGC.
Without greater government support, the fund risks running out of money by 2021, the study warns.
The analysis comes just...

Enron Whistleblowers see far bigger problem....E

2005-03-20 18:58:32 by puro

>
Thursday, March 17, 2005 - 11:40 , (521 Reads)
The leading energy analysts who foretold Enron's demise have an alarming new claim: The world's major oil companies are almost tapped out.
Four years ago, the analysts at John S. Herold Inc. were the first to call bullshit on Enron. On Feb. 21, 2001, three Herold analysts issued a report that said Enron's profit margins were shriveling, the company had too few hard assets, and its stock price was way too high. Less than ten months later, Enron filed for bankruptcy.
Today, the analysts at Herold—a research-only firm that issues valuations on several hundred publicly traded energy companies—are making predictions even bolder than their call on Enron. They have begun estimating when each of the world's biggest energy...

And this family story

2005-03-18 19:21:09 by undecidedstill

Barbara Bush Aids in Social Security Fight
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President Bush, needing more converts to his plan for Social Security reform, brought his mom to help with the sales pitch Friday.
Wearing her trademark pearls, Barbara Bush took the stage with the president and another of her sons, Gov. Jeb Bush. George W. Bush opened the program by reassuring people born before 1950 that their Social Security benefits would not change.
On cue, the 79-year-old former first lady joked that she showed up so she could tell her two sons what to do.
"That's really not why I'm here," she quickly admitted. "I'm here because your father (President George H.W. Bush) and I...

A CFD strategy to hedge losses in a broader portfolio  — CITY A.M.
But, as a means of avoiding, or at least limiting, the harshest consequences of stock market volatility, a creative use of CFDs could be useful. As Campbell says,“It's an accepted part of a retail investor's armoury.” With stock market projections …


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