Neural Networks Horse betting
ver Christmas, I starting reading Adam Heathcote’s blog, Horse Racing Trader. He has set himself a challenge, that in 2009, he will make £150, 000 from trading horseracing on the Betfair betting exchange. So far, in his first month, he has made well over £15, 000 and is well on target to succeed.
I like three things about this challenge. Firstly, Adam is clearly very good at spotting trends and signals in the market, by analysing a stream of data provided by Betfair. Secondly, Betfair have published a web service API to allow you to interact with their exchange. Finally, any profits you make from Betfair are entirely tax-free!
This got me thinking that it might be worth pointing a neural network at the exchange and see if it could also spot the trends and signals that Adam is working with. Therefore, I opened a Betfair account, deposited £100 and started to hook up a neural network.
It took me a while to work out exactly I should be feeding into the network, and how I would identify the correct trading signals. However, after much trial and error, I seem to have something stable. I will not reveal exactly what the final configuration looks like just yet, but I will explain the basic
Source: Dynamic Notions
Forecasting Methods for Horseracing
Book (Oldcastle Books)
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