Currency exchange trading
FX markets were relatively choppy and the dollar is currently softer against the majors following the FOMC announcement, updated Fed projections, and press conference. U.S. Treasury yields are mixed and 10-year yields briefly spiked above the 2.01% 100-day SMA and are currently back below the pivotal level.
The Fed kept rates on hold at 0-25bps as expected and maintained its stance to keep rates ”exceptionally low” through late 2014. There were subtle changes to the FOMC statement, noting recent improvement in labor market conditions and the housing sector, but maintaining the view that the unemployment rate is elevated and housing market depressed. The bank also noted that inflation has picked up due to higher oil prices and said that they ”economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually”. Overall, the statement was slightly upbeat and made no mention of QE which saw yields and the buck move higher.
The release of Fed projections showed upwards revision to real GDP growth with forecasts of 2.4%-2.9% for 2012 up from the prior 2.2%-2.7% estimate and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 7.8%-8% this year from the previous forecast of 8.2%-8.5%. At the press conference, Bernanke made comments indicating that the Fed won’t hesitate to take action if necessary and said that ”tools remain on the table”. However for now, he noted, that good reasons exist to continue to keep policy easy and rates low. Treasury yields and the dollar reversed their initial gains and the dollar index is currently trading near lows of the session around the 79.00 figure.
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