anguard 500 Index Fund Investor Shares (VFINX). May 2012 Starting Price: $128.95. Prediction: Lower. May 2012 Ending / June 2012 Starting Price (no dividends): $121.19. Result: CORRECT.
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Investor Shares (NAESX). May 2012 Starting Price: $37.33 . Prediction: Lower. May 2012 Ending / June 2012 Starting Price (no dividends): $34.80. Result: CORRECT.
Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund Investor Shares (VDMIX). May 2012 Starting Price: $9.26 . Prediction: Lower. May 2012 Ending/ June 2012 Starting Price (no dividends): $8.22. Result: CORRECT.
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Investor Shares (VEIEX). May 2012 Starting Price $26.99 . Prediction: Lower. May 2012 Ending / June 2012 Starting Price (no dividends): $24.00. Result: CORRECT.
All stock indices got slammed this month with foreign stocks getting the worst of it. It's tempting to forecast a bounce in June, especially
Source: Long-Term Returns
Oracles: How Prediction Markets Turn Employees into Visionaries
Book (Harvard Business Review Press)
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Stock market analysts on trial2002-02-09 14:24:25 by on-trial
The amount of poor and self-interested advice that is being issued by brokerages and their analysts. To this day, the majority of stockbrokers are compensated on the number of trades their customers make, not on the returns they generate for them or on the quality of the advice they provide. We believe that the price targets and analyst ratings are made with several masters in mind, none of whom are the individual investor. In a similar fashion, sell-side stock analysts are generally compensated based upon the overall profitability of their firms, not the quality or accuracy of their analysis. In the end, analysts have minimal structural incentive to be accurate in their predictions; rather their built-in incentive is to be as favorable to their corporate clients as possible. It is a...
Gurus' Results Stay Consistently Bad — Forbes
Investment gurus make their money selling market predictions, not following them. Their overall performance has been historically and consistently dismal. Why people pay for market predictions is a one of Wall Street's biggest mysteries.
Predictions for the year 2012