Bishop 1995 Neural Networks

Ensembles and Resampling
Dynamic behaviour of the state

To explain why resampling and ensembles are so useful, it is helpful to formulate the neural network training process in statistical terms (Bishop, 1995). We regard the problem as that of estimating an unknown nonlinear function, which has additive noise, on the basis of a limited data set of examples, D. There are several sources of error in our neural network's predictions. First, and unavoidably, even a "perfect" network that exactly modeled the underlying function would make errors due to the noise. However, there is also error due to the fact that we need to fit the neural network model using the finite sample data set, D. This remaining error can be split into two components, the model bias and variance. The bias is the average error that a particular model training procedure will make across different particular data sets (drawn from the unknown function's distribution). The variance reflects the sensitivity of the modeling procedure to a particular choice of data set.
We can trade off bias versus variance. At one extreme, we can arbitrarily select a function that entirely ignores the data. This has zero variance, but presumably high bias, since we have not actually taken into account the known aspects of the problem at all. At the opposite extreme, we can

Source: Pattern Recognition Lab

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A Pascal's Wager you should seriously consider

2010-07-05 06:09:35 by magicthighs

With the stock market lurching again, plenty of investors are nervous, and some are downright bearish. Then there’s Robert Prechter, the market forecaster and social theorist, who is in another league entirely.
Prechter is convinced we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions – perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years.
In a series of phone conversations and e-mail exchanges last week, he said that no other forecaster was likely to accept his reasoning, which is based on his version of the Elliott Wave theory – a technical approach to market analysis that he embraces with evangelical fervor.
Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or "fractals," in the stock market of the 1930s and...

I truly enjoy Nat Geo magazine's secular stance

2008-12-03 12:23:43 by Snakebyte_XX

For example, there's a story about King Herod in the December issue that goes into great detail about his rein.
It's distinguished by passages such as this one:
Yet today he is best known as the sly and murderous monarch of Matthew's Gospel, who slaughtered every male infant in Bethlehem in an unsuccessful attempt to kill the newborn Jesus, the prophesied King of the Jews. During the Middle Ages he became an image of the Antichrist: Illuminated manuscripts and Gothic gargoyles show him tearing his beard in mad fury and brandishing his sword at the luckless infants, with Satan whispering in his ear. Herod is almost certainly innocent of this crime, of which there is no report apart from Matthew's account.

and this one:

And for good reason

2007-12-16 20:40:10 by spudmuck

The other side recycles the "models-are-inaccurate" argument because it they remain the only evidence offered that humans are responsible for any observed shift in the climate. Without those models there is every indication that what we are experiencing is a normal, natural occurance and any influence humans have is minimal at worst. Those models are the GW camps stock in trade. Without those models they have nothing, or at best very little.
As the primary evidence offered for the theory any critical examination will focus on those models.
As far as credentials go it seems to me the pro-GW camp play pretty fast and loose with this as well. There are many contributors to the IPCC reports whose primary speciality is not climateology. And many that would not qualify as...

AWEX Merino Cardings Price Guide drop sharply  —

... in commodity prices; and in the transfer of investor funds from Australia to the “safe havens” of US Treasury bonds, the Swiss Franc and the Yen. The transfer of funds from Australia results in a lower Australian exchange rate with the United States.

Inflation expected to fall - RBNZ survey  — TVNZ
They're picking the Australian exchange rate to be 79 cents by the end of March next year. The kiwi recently traded at 76.48 US cents and 77.30 Australian cents. The Reserve Bank surveyed 71 firms out of a sample of 118, and was conducted by Nielsen.

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